Sunday, January 19, 2020

The Carrot and the Stick

It is a truism of political science that there are two ways to get a mule to do what you want:  to use the carrot, or the stick.  These approaches are also applied to people, as broad terms to denote various enticements or threats.  Dale Carnegie pointed out that for the carrot to work, you must also be able to "arouse within another an eager want," that is, engage in salesmanship, and also that sticks are generally ineffective in the long term.

Bill Clinton was regarded as a master of offering carrots.  Better observers of political science than I have said so.  They also mention his reluctance to use the stick.  It really is no wonder that he got elected, as American electioneering is largely a matter of offering various carrots to people. 

The carrots that Donald Trump offered the electorate were largely tax cuts, deregulation, improved border security, and returning patriotism to a socially acceptable stance (something the Common Core standards for history largely make untenable).  The only sticks he really had to wave during the election were the policies of Barack Obama, and the history and character of Hillary Clinton, who was promising to expand them.

What I've observed about Donald Trump, especially when it comes to his foreign policy, is that he makes ready use of not only the carrot and the stick, but also salesmanship and showmanship, in order to get what he wants (e.g., an end to Chinese protectionism, which I support, as well as an end to Chinese dumping, which I do not), and often in rapid succession or even simultaneously.  He's done so in the contexts of NAFTA renegotiations, the China trade deal, and his attempts to get North Korea to denuclearize.  I don't care for all of his foreign policy goals, but I have to admire how straightforward and how effective he is in pursuing them.  And I think that part of that is due to his salesmanship and showmanship.


It hasn't always worked.  Many people were aghast when President Trump lavished praise and offered status to Kim Jong Un, but I saw it as an offer of some carrots (and fairly cheap carrots at that), combined with salesmanship and the possible offering of more carrots in the future. 

Admittedly, Iran has thus far mostly gotten the stick from President Trump.  The closest he's come to offering a carrot is to announce that he's ready to negotiate for peace, but only on his terms, particularly verification of their denuclearization.  But given the pallets of cash that the previous US President lavished upon the Iranian government, while getting very little for his constituents, Trump may have quite reasonably concluded that they were feeling too entitled to getting carrots from us while fomenting (at gunpoint, when necessary) demonstrations demanding "Death to America!"

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